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Friday, May 30, 2008

European Union - NEXT ECONOMIC SUPERPOWER BLOC?

That's what seems to be happening......

Here's the quantitative analysis:

  • Check out the $ versus Euro graph. It's again this phenomenon of "mass psychology". The Euro was gaining slowly but steadily. Now that the world's greatest investor Warren Buffet(world's richest man) has openly expressed that he has no more faith in the U.S. $, at least in the next 10 years, people have realized the truth (?). The Oracle of Omaha rarely speaks...but he spoke and shook the world. No wonder Bill Gates(#2) is his good buddy.
  • European Union (EU) taking into account the combined GDP of Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden Norway, Denmark, Switzerland, Spain, etc etc already has a GDP 2 X (twice) that of the U.S.
  • Add to that a growing unity amongst all the countries. It's only unity that makes a combination strong. History has proved that time and time again. How did the U.S. rise to be such a superpower ?
  • EU countries have a balanced defense expenditure. Hence, it puts lesser strain on their economy.
  • Cross-border trade is probably the single most important factor.

Lastly, I find this American culture of working 10 hours a day a bit "destructive" in the long run. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. Or else how would you explain that the Italians and French have afternoon siestas (yes, sleeping in the afternoon) and especially the French having such long holidays making so much money ?

I hope Google, with its creative culture changes this fixed American mindset.....and passes on some buck to me ;-) My financial analyst Debajyoti Dutta-Roy sez he's got much faith in the EU economy.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Oil touches $ 135 a barrel

Note 2007 June oil was at $65 / barrel.

So the price has now doubled !

Funny thing is I visited 3 banks during the last month.......

At first I was presented with many investment options.....

I listened...

Then I started lecturing on why it's not a good time to buy:

It's happening globally :

Rising Inflation
Food prices spiralling. Food riots !
Oil prices are leaving everybody confused.
Global nervousness.
Sub prime lending crisis hitting big banks also.
Huge deficits in some countries.
War, natural catastrophies, global warming is hitting economies indirectly


After some time, my investment advisors themselves start asking me for advice:

I told quite a few of them to buy gold. Or silver.

I really can't think of any within the next 4 months.

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